Yesterday, the A-share market rebounded, and the overall market optimism once again took the upper hand. There were various voices calling for a rise, and those who were digging deep to find reasons for the rise were also tormented by the market trend, seemingly becoming somewhat paranoid. Today, I saw a friend's message that was well said: neither optimistic nor pessimistic, this is a realm.
In today's morning article, let's talk about whether the current A-shares have reached the point of being impervious to oil and salt. What should we small investors do?
First, what is impervious to oil and salt? Has the market reached this realm?
Impervious to oil and salt is an idiom and a colloquialism, which means not listening to others' words and describes a person as very stubborn. The synonyms of impervious to oil and salt are stubborn and unyielding.
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According to this definition, we can see if A-shares have reached the point of being impervious to oil and salt. The main diagnostic criteria here are two:
One is the response to news. Some time ago, the main funds were really exhausted for this rebound, and suddenly made many levels of good news, which made you believe it.
These news have been preheated and widely spread, and indeed had a certain impact on investors' hearts. This is reflected in some people who often see more but are often slapped in the face recently. They have a common saying: that is, not to go against the national will.
The second is the close cooperation of the market. The A-share market rebounded sharply from July 25th, and this rebound itself has a very obvious color of attracting more. The leading sector is securities, which is undoubtedly the main funds of this rebound. They have carefully planned to use the image and appeal of the securities sector in A-shares to launch a rebound.
At this time, with the help of the bull market, the reversal and other motivational stock reviews, the market has risen by more than 110 points in just four trading days, activating the market's popularity to the maximum. On July 31, August 1, and 4, the three trading days saw a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that the funds following the trend are increasing.Thirdly, during this stage, the A-share market has responded positively to favorable news. However, looking at the overall trend in recent days, especially after the 4th, the market has fallen continuously for four days. Many people have calmed down to consider the authenticity of the favorable news released by the main capital.
At this stage, the A-share market has developed a strong resistance to general favorable news, with increasingly higher demands. The news must be of a high level and directly address the soft spots of the A-share market. The main capital has found favorable news for adjusting stamp duty and implementing T+0 reverse transactions.
So much time has passed, and despite all the favorable news mentioned, none has been realized. There is not even a basic discussion draft, which is undoubtedly another blow to the confidence of investors in the market.
The result of this approach is that in the future, no one will believe any favorable news, and a reverse operation will occur. The more favorable news is released, the more the market falls. The greater the favorable news, the deeper the fall. The A-share market has truly entered a state where it is impervious to any influence. Only through a prolonged period of decline can it complete the adjustment of the overall market trend over the past two years.
Secondly, the current A-share market is actually a bewildering array, a tunnel warfare, and a mine warfare.
Firstly, why is it called a bewildering array? Since the A-share market reached its peak on May 9th, the main capital has actually been sawing back and forth at some important positions. It seems to be building a bottom through fluctuations, but it is actually difficult to break through the main pressure points. For example, since May 25th, the market has been fluctuating around the range of 3200-3250 points.
There were two times when the market broke through 3200 points, and both times rebounded. The rebound that started from 3150 points on June 27th saw the market rise by 100 points. This time, the rebound that started on July 24th saw the market rise by 150 points, from 3150 points to 3322 points. Every time such a rebound occurred, people shouted about the bull market, and the main capital also cooperated until someone came to take over.
The fundamental reason for calling it a bewildering array is that the A-share market completed the construction of a large double top on May 9th, and the overall trend has been formed. It is a mid-term downtrend, but many people are talking about the bull market and reversal.Secondly, what does the term "tunnel warfare" mean? It primarily refers to a situation where the overall market rises, but many stocks only experience a slight increase or even no increase at all. There are countless stocks that play with a penny all day long when the market is rising. As soon as the market makes a slight adjustment, most of these stocks return to their original downward trend, beginning to fluctuate horizontally in the "tunnel." Retail investors who enter are eliminated one by one, which undermines their confidence.
Thirdly, the significance of "mine warfare" lies in the fact that if you chase high, it's like buying a mine. If you try to bottom-fish, you might end up in the tunnel. Especially for some lone heroes who forge ahead on their own, regardless of the market's ups and downs, they keep rising. When people go to chase them, a long bearish candle teaches many people a lesson.
Thirdly, how should we retail investors respond?
The above metaphors are not very appropriate, but at least they illustrate that the current A-share market is almost at a point where it is impervious to persuasion, stubbornly falling, and no one's words have an effect.
Regardless of the market's ups and downs, retail investors are actually in a dilemma now. If they buy in, they might get trapped. If they don't buy, some stocks are jumping and dancing, and there are strong favorable news to support them. Should you buy or not? What if you get trapped? Wait for the good news to save you, or save yourself?
Now, A-shares have become completely immune to medium-level good news, and super big good news is not likely to appear in the short term. The suffering and fear after buying at this time are hard for outsiders to understand.
Under the premise that the overall situation is not completely clear, we should be cautious in chasing market hotspots. For friends who are trapped, never sell the old to buy the new, as this will lead to a continuous cycle on the road of being trapped, which requires money. How much money do you have?
In short, no matter whether the overall market is impervious to persuasion, we retail investors should currently be impervious to persuasion. No matter how eloquently you speak, you have your thousands of strategies, and I have my old idea, which is to wait for the market trend to become clear. The current opportunities may not be opportunities. The main reason I say so much is that I feel that few retail investors can withstand the tossing, and there is no need to pay for the small profits given by the market makers. Risk awareness must be firmly remembered.
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