In the history of A-shares, there have been many instances of market rescues, which are basically after establishing a policy bottom, then looking for a market bottom. Will this time be an exception? Now the market is rising so much that many people have forgotten about this issue, many retail investors are blindly optimistic, and everyone is no longer talking about this rule. Today's morning article will discuss this issue with everyone.
First, let's talk about the market rescue in A-shares.
1. There have been 9 market rescues in the history of A-shares. Including the two times last year and earlier this year, it should be 11 times.
Looking at the historical trend, from the timing of these market rescues to the A-shares seeing the market bottom, there is at least a 3-month interval. As the size of new A-share stocks expands, A-shares will have a policy market rescue process every three years, with varying degrees of intensity and different market trends.
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The most intense one was the 519 market in 1999, which triggered a technology stock market, followed by the outbreak of network technology stocks. However, the subsequent market rescue only played a role in stabilizing market sentiment and stabilizing the index, without triggering a major market.
This time the market rescue is a policy investment, a self-rescue of the main force, and the various market makers also began to become active. There is no clear theme line, it is just a few main force-heavy varieties, back and forth, the subject stocks are evolving towards the extremely cold plate, and now it is basically at the end.
That is to say, this rebound is a pattern of rotation, although the stock price has rebounded significantly, but there is no clear leading plate, now the market index is stuck between 3050-3100 points, the arc top shape begins to evolve to the right half, and there is a sense of ending the rebound.
2. As for the effect of the two most recent market rescues, the evaluation is mixed.The market rescue in August last year, the market rescue at the end of January this year, and the ongoing rescue to this day, have already seen a rebound of 18% from the low point.
The current issue is that the policy bottom of the current market rescue trend can be confirmed as 2635 points. If this point is regarded as the starting point of the bull market, it is obviously too emotional and hasty.
Because in the history of A-shares, the starting point of each bull market has never been a single sharp bottom shape. Sharp bottoms are extremely rare in major trends, and the duration of the general market is not long. Therefore, it is not possible to determine that 2635 points is the bottom of the future bull market at present.
Secondly, the main force is now using a slow rise to numb the retail investors and never mentions the topic of the market bottom after the policy bottom. All kinds of stock reviews also pretend not to know.
Rescue is just a rescue, no one promises the market to save a bull market. After achieving the goal, it will be withdrawn, otherwise the market function will be weakened.
The current main force is just cheering up the retail investors, only regretting that they do not buy stocks, regretting that they hold stocks to wait for the rise, and fearing that they adjust the positions and stocks. They always use shocking language, saying that selling the chips is equivalent to losing a bull market, which is very one-sided.
Never confuse the rescue with the bull market. These are two completely different concepts. In logic, the rescue cannot be deduced to the bull market. The process of the first 9 rescues in the history of A-shares has proved this point.
Because there is no stock market that only rises and does not fall. Since A-shares are a policy market, the policy cannot be invested forever, because in this case, the market function of A-shares will be weakened. Therefore, the rescue has a time limit. Now it is time to discuss where the market bottom is after the policy bottom is established.Thirdly, let's discuss where the market bottom of the broad market is after this market rescue.
1. We can divide the A-share market rescue in the past year into two parts, one is last year's 828, and the other is this year's February. Because after the policy bottom, there must be a market bottom. The management layer issues policies to do more, to counteract the market's bearish momentum. When the policy exits, it hands the market back to the market, and after another shuffle, the balance point reached is the market bottom.
The first 828 market rescue failed, leaving an unsuccessful policy bottom. The successful rescue in February this year, with 2635 points, naturally became the policy bottom. From 2635 points, there is now a 543-point increase space. Under the premise of confirming that the market rescue cannot save the bull market or reverse, what we should consider now is where the market bottom is located.
We calculate the 828 market rescue and this rescue together, and there are two policy bottoms, which correspond to two market bottoms. The low point after the 828 market rescue was 2724 points, which is exactly four months from 828, and the broad market fell by 329 points.
Then there was another market rescue. We consider the rebound on January 23 this year as the main force's preparation process after knowing in advance that the high-level market rescue would happen. After the broad market fell to 2635, the policy once again took action, achieving a 543-point increase in this round of rebound.
2. We can boldly predict where the positions are if there are two market bottoms.
First, it corresponds to two market bottoms.
The first one is to break through the 2724-2635 point range, and then there will be a rebound, still focusing on the 3000 point issue, but the time is not long. After a rapid fall, it breaks through the 2635 point resistance, where to go, is currently unknown. I won't go into detail here, please discuss.The current trend increasingly indicates that the 2635 point level is not a long-term bottom area, for the following reasons: The sharp bottom pattern does not have a long-term sustainability, which has been fully proven in the A-share market trend over the past two years. At the end of April the year before last, the sharp bottom rebound at 2863 points led to a 561 point increase in the index. Similarly, at the end of October the year before last, the double sharp bottom rebound from 2885 points to 3418 points resulted in a 533 point increase.
Secondly, the rebound amplitude of the three sharp top rebounds in the index over the past three years has been between 500 to 600 points. This time's market rescue rebound is the same as the rebound at the end of October the year before last, with a double sharp bottom rebound of 543 points. You can look at the three recent rebounds in April and October of the year before last, including this one, and find that the increase is basically consistent. Moreover, they all occurred under the atmosphere of the market loudly proclaiming the arrival of a bull market, resulting in significant market fluctuations. It cannot be said to be a major rebound. These three major fluctuations, one after another, are lower, reflecting that this is a long-term trend of selling.
3. Looking ahead to the future, after three major fluctuations in three years, the previous two were not market rescues, and the rescue in February was the most powerful, with the cost including policy and funds. Therefore, it can be judged that the future bull market will be magnificent.
The premise is that there is still a tragic bottom-building trend, which is one of the necessary conditions for a major bull market. The three rebounds above prove that no matter how many sharp bottoms there are, they cannot create a major bull market, including the current half-dead and not living, and the high position continues to lure more. It is also not a sign of a bull market.
A bull market must have a solid bottom area, note that it is an area, which requires time. The current trend is not only a short-term delay in the index's callback but also a delay in the arrival time of the major bull market. Therefore, this rebound cannot last for a long time.
In summary, the market performance after the market rescue in the above bear market tells us: The market rescue can inspire the market sentiment in the short term, but if the market's own problems are not fundamentally solved, the market rescue can only promote the market rebound through sentiment in the short term, and the time and space are relatively limited, and cannot change the market's own big trend. It is not that the main force does not say that there is no market bottom, what should come will come, one cannot be less, and there may still be a considerable distance from the policy bottom to the market bottom.
I often remind everyone to pay attention to risks, mainly based on preparing for the future bull market, everyone is tired. I have been doing stock reviews in the market for four years, and I have experienced these three major rebounds, witnessing many retail investors, from emotional excitement to quiet speechlessness, and then disappearing. In other words, they have been completely harvested, and I am really heartbroken. I can only shout in my heart the sentence I was in the field 20 years ago: God bless retail investors!
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