The A-share rebound this time has lasted for two months. Apart from the eight consecutive days of gains, most of the time has been spent in a high-level consolidation, during which various thematic stocks have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, becoming active one after another. The stock market is the stock market, with its own operating rules. Below, I will deeply consider some of the phenomena that have appeared in this A-share rebound for friends to communicate.
First, during the high-level consolidation period, the most common phenomenon in the A-share market trend is the closing price of the midday trading session and the sneak attack at the end of the market. Both are behaviors that indicate a decline in bullish energy.
1. Playing with the midday closing price.
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The main reason is that the low opening and fluctuation in the morning cannot attract much follow-up funding. In order to maintain the trend of their own stock prices, they can only pull up the stock price with a sharp trend near the end of the midday trading session, stimulating some people who always have money but have not bought, to buy in the afternoon, in order to achieve the purpose of activating the market.
If the midday closing price is done, and the afternoon is a fluctuating decline, then this drama cannot be performed continuously. If the stock price rises after the midday pull, and the afternoon fluctuates and rises, then the deceptiveness is good.
But it is also a helpless move. The reason why the afternoon is all rising is that it is all large-cap weight stocks that are rising, and the time and amplitude required are large.
2. End-of-market sneak attack.
The main reason is that the stock price has been fluctuating at a low level all day. Why is it fluctuating? It is mainly due to the main force of capital goods. In A-shares, if the market maker does not lift the stock price, it is useless for retail investors to be optimistic. The stock price will only rise when the market maker actively lifts it.The current market rebound has nearly reached 500 points. Throughout the day, the stock prices have been fluctuating at a low level, only to suddenly increase in volume after two o'clock. At this moment, three issues should be considered:
Firstly, the main force has been selling all day, with stock prices being low. To facilitate the sale for the next day, the price is pulled up, making the selling process more relaxed the next day. This is the most standard pattern of a stock controlled by a major shareholder.
Secondly, if this continues, we must consider that the main forces are colluding to make transactions to create trading volume, which is to lure more buyers. Only in this way can new capital be attracted to take over and hold the stock for an increase. Through these days of observation, the pattern of sneak attacks at the end of the market is basically consistent, which is closely related to quantitative trading. Therefore, everyone should not have any misunderstandings about quantitative trading, it's just a different direction.
Thirdly, the energy of the long position is exhausted. If it is a big market, the main force of funds is very relaxed. They can freely suppress and lift the market, making the market very smooth, and also make sneak attacks at the end of the market, all after the last 15 minutes, not starting at 2 o'clock, half past two on time. This is not to buy, but to sell, to maintain the market, to stabilize the expectations of retail investors, and to be forced to continue the market.
Secondly, is the current A-share market really strong? I want to ask everyone a few questions:
Firstly, since it is a will, why has it been high for so long?
Why not break through 3100 points quickly? After all, the stocks that are launched are large weight stocks, and the rise is a piece of cake. Why doesn't it rise? Don't the main forces know that the market will fall after a long time?
Secondly, since it is a big bull market, why are you so afraid of falling?A bull market is not afraid of any pullbacks. Even if the market falls by 3% during the day and another 3% the next day, it remains unafraid, because it will quickly recover. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a bull market. This time, the reason for the formation of a rounded top is very clear, which is to sell out.
Secondly, is it truly strong or just a facade? A Chinese historical story, "pulling up the seedlings to help them grow," vividly compares the current market situation.
Every day, the indicators are dulled, and technical analysis seems to be ineffective, yet the index has not been able to form an effective breakthrough? Wouldn't it be healthier to correct the rise? What are we worried about? Are we worried about the trapped positions above? What about the profit-taking from the rise starting at 2635 points? Who has them in their hands?
Of course, all of this needs to be sold, and to whom? Let's take a look at the leading sector of this market, the banking sector. The index has risen so much, with a total market value of more than a trillion yuan every day, and the trading volume is almost 20 billion yuan, indicating that the positions that have risen from 2635 points have not been sold out.
Thirdly, many people always ask, who has sold the net outflow of tens of billions of yuan every day?
This can only be said that those who say such things are very unfamiliar with A-shares. A-shares alone have more than 10,000 funds, not including various institutional investors, securities firms' proprietary trading, private equity, listed companies' own securities investments, private equity, small and medium institutions, large investors, medium investors, and the final bottom layer is retail investors. Don't worry, there will always be funds to take over.
Let's take a look at the trend of the banking index, especially the 5-minute trend, which is a standard strong stock trend, indicating that the banking sector has now become the largest stock in A-shares. You can open any stock's 5-minute trend and compare it to see the difference, and you will know what a stock is.
Thirdly, if we understand this market rescue from another perspective, we will get different answers.Firstly, this market rescue has catered to the calls of market investors. Why? I have said a lot, and I will not elaborate here.
Looking at the results of this rebound in A-shares, many stocks have doubled, and there are many that have risen by more than 50%, which has provided a good opportunity for some investors to take profits and also given deeply trapped investors a chance to recover significantly. These are the outcomes that retail investors have been looking forward to for a long time.
It can be said that the retail investors have got what they wanted this time. Of course, wanting a big bull market is another matter. As long as this wave maintains its gains and significantly reduces losses, the current situation is an opportunity. This will test each investor's understanding of the market's direction and their grasp of short-term trends.
Secondly, a friend said yesterday: I said that the main force at 6124 is still selling out. I clearly told him that the big main force started to sell out from the 4000 point market, and continued to sell until 6124 points, and even continued to sell after falling. Why not sell? At such a high point, the main force, that is, the market manipulator, no matter its size, what is it doing in this market? Is it for you, the retail investor, to make money?
He simply does not understand that the main force takes a long time to build a position. Without building a position, how can it lift the price? When to build a position is during the period when retail investors are desperate, which is an absolute low point. He buys for a year or two, and the lifting time is very short, which is a process of raising the price. Then, another group of retail investors comes to take over the position, and the time to sell in a fluctuating market is even longer.
Most of the time, the manipulators in A-shares are selling, which is the norm, because the chips collected at a low price are sold to the take-over investors in the first lifting process, doubling the price, and the cost has been recovered, and the profit has been locked at one time.
The subsequent goods will be sold in a fluctuating market. Here, I will not mention the so-called high dividend, the stock price after the dividend and interest, just the cost of the stocks in the hands of the manipulators, which is so low that you can't imagine it in two years.
Thirdly, why can some stocks lie at a low position for several years without rising, and the manipulators inside are still sticking to it.
The problem lies in the dividend and interest. After several rounds, as long as the cost of the manipulator's holdings is positive, although it is lying and making money, it indicates that he has not made a complete profit. As long as you buy, the manipulator can make several times the profit. Only a low price can attract retail investors. Can't the manipulator see the stock price? Why doesn't he buy? The recent new lithium scenery is a vivid example of continuous sales for three years. This is also the origin of A-shares, which are more speculative in new stocks than old ones.
Through the above analysis, we can conclude: no matter what the current trend is, A-shares have not shown any information of trend change. The current rebound is a continuation of the 828 market rescue, which can also be said to be a PISU version, and its purpose is to ensure the sales of stocks such as banks, oil, coal, electricity, steel, and communication equipment.Many people are unaware that during the 2015 market rescue, a large number of these stocks with significant weight were purchased, and they were almost all central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and companies with "China" in their names. These types of stocks, such as banks and coal companies, have been in a bull market for ten years. Why are they called stocks? Stocks are meant to be bought and sold. If you hold stocks for so long and make so much profit without selling, can they still be called stocks?
What I do is macro trend analysis, which is a judgment on the trend of the A-share market. The target of my judgment is large-cap weighted stocks, which may not be very helpful for the trend of the thematic stocks you are doing. However, I have basically explained some of the routines in the stock market. Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg. I hope that if you want to make money in this market, you should have some understanding of the routines in this market. Don't say some amateurish words and treat them as ridicule to me. Calm down, learn more, and only in this way can you avoid losses.
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