I used to pay no attention to the U.S. stock market. In the past two years, due to the reason of investing in overseas funds, I have started to pay attention to the U.S. stock market. Recently, the speculation by retail investors in the U.S. stock market has also been very hot, and many junk stocks have risen by six or seven times due to being hotly speculated by retail investors.
In the face of this situation, many U.S. analysts believe that this is a signal that the U.S. stock market is about to peak. In fact, the stock markets around the world are all like this. When the last speculation on small-cap junk stocks is heated, the market may become the top.
I bought the U.S. NASDAQ 100 index fund last year and cleared it last month. Whether the U.S. stock market will crash or not, it has nothing to do with me. No matter whether the U.S. stock market will rise in the future, I remain cautious about U.S. stocks. The stocks in the U.S. stock market are at least not cheap now.
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In contrast, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares are relatively cheaper. It is definitely no problem to concentrate funds on Hong Kong stocks and A-shares from a strategic point of view.
A fan asked me: "Master, will you really hold stocks for eight or nine years?"
I replied: Must!
Many people think that stock trading is just a small play. Make a little money and run, then look for opportunities to run back and make a profit again, and then run. Most people dare not take it seriously in investment.
What is taking it seriously? It is to truly read and learn hundreds of investment books, take notes in more than 20 years of stock market operations, and reflect diligently. Use more than a million yuan of funds to enter the market and make a vow to hold shares for 10 years, 20 years or more. This seemingly "a warrior goes once and never returns" investment, is something that most people dare not do.
Life and investment are the same thing. In our lives, those who dare to take it seriously are "tough guys". They are more likely to succeed than ordinary people. In life, if you invest more time, energy, thought, and capital than others, and dare to bear greater risks than others, you are more likely to have a big advantage and are more likely to succeed.
Most people invest and pay very little in the stock market, but hope for huge returns. This is obviously a delusion. Most people either invest a small amount of capital, or spend less time studying and researching, or hold stocks for a short time. How can there be huge returns with little investment?There are very few people who are willing to invest as much as I do in the stock market. To do anything well in the world, one must have a passion for it. Stock investment requires genuine love, which will lead to genuine dedication. The vast majority of people do not actually like stock investment; they do not enjoy spending a lot of time studying and investing. Their passion is mainly for money.
My cousin is an accountant at a state-owned enterprise. She never looks at the financial statements of listed companies when trading stocks. She said, "Financial reports are all deceiving." It took me many years to understand why she said that.
For example, the financial report of Muyuan Foods has always been questioned by many people for its outstanding performance, suspected of being fake. Similarly, the net profit margin of Weiming Environmental Protection, which is much higher than its peers, has also been questioned by many stockholders. Many years ago, Blue Field Shares and LeEco were also suspected of financial fraud before the incident.
The same is true for questioning financial reports. Some companies were later proven to be financially fraudulent, such as Blue Field and LeEco. Some companies have been living well under the suspicion of fraud. For example, Muyuan and Weiming.
This itself shows that it is very difficult to judge whether a company is financially fraudulent from the financial report. It is necessary to personally go to the site to verify. For example, the construction projects in the financial report of Han's Laser many years ago were suspected of financial fraud because they had not been completed for many years. But it was just suspicion, because there was no conclusive evidence. It was not until later that a reporter went abroad for this and saw the hotel project built by the company abroad, and then he knew what was going on with this construction project.
So, some people say, "Analyzing financial reports is just to exclude risky companies." Some companies can be seen at a glance in the financial statements to have potential risks. Some companies' financial statements we have been looking at for a long time, but we cannot draw any definitive conclusions. For example, someone pointed out through financial analysis at that time that a real estate company built houses for county and town governments, and the local government was simply unable to pay for the houses. A few years later, this company was ST. Companies like Muyuan Foods are not in the minority in A-shares, and we still cannot confirm whether its operations have problems after looking at the financial statements.
What I want to say is that we still have some reference value in looking at the financial statements in investment. Although this role is not very big, it is definitely better than not looking at the financial statements. Just like a doorman, every time someone comes in, he asks for the name. This simple procedure seems to have no significant meaning, because there will definitely be someone who will lie. But we also have to admit that asking for a name is definitely better than not asking anything.
In stock investment, not only should we look at financial reports, but also conduct field research. Even so, we cannot guarantee 100% to see through a company. This is the difficulty of investment. Therefore, I have always paid attention to the stock investment portfolio. The financial statements are true and false, and we may not be able to touch the core issues of the company when we go to research, and our understanding of the listed companies cannot guarantee 100% in place. These are the risks we cannot avoid in our investment.
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