The A-share market these days has really broken many people's hearts. No matter what kind of news comes out, the market first experiences a plunge, causing heavy losses for a large number of investors. Is there really no opportunity in the A-share market? The answer is no. Stock trading should focus on key points, rather than blindly buying. Each wave of the market has a leading sector, but the ebb and flow of the stock market determine the rise and fall of each sector.
Below, I list several sectors that have had a significant impact recently, which everyone can carefully observe and then discuss where the next opportunity for speculation in the A-share market lies.
Due to limited space, I will divide the article into two parts to briefly introduce them, and tomorrow I will share the last two sectors: artificial intelligence and environmental protection, so stay tuned.
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Let me clarify here, in the A-share market, no one knows which sector will lead the next big wave of the market. I'm talking about a big wave, not a one or two-day limit-up board. This requires us to continuously search and eliminate, which is a time-consuming and labor-intensive task, and it is also the basic skill of doing stocks. Never have the idea that the stocks I buy will definitely soar.
There are also many friends who only see the market rising, but they don't know who is rising, thinking about buying some stocks to follow the trend and make a little money, but in the end, they get stuck, which is not worth the loss. Therefore, it is essential to solve two problems: first, to find out who is leading, who is the second wave of leaders, who is following the trend, and who is independent; second, what is the basis for the rise, and this basis is time-sensitive.
First, banks and oil. Social security and insurance-heavy sectors.
Due to the limited length of the article, today I will only talk about the banking, oil, and communication equipment sectors. After reading, everyone will have a clear understanding of the future trend of these varieties, which can serve as a reference for their own investment.
Let's start with the banking sector. To make the analysis more intuitive, I use the trend of the banking index, mainly the daily and monthly lines, which makes it easier to see the future trend of the market.The overall banking index has formed a large-scale top divergence trend and has now evolved into a stock with heavy manipulation, which is a stubborn problem that the A-share market has been trying to cure for the past decade or so. Unfortunately, our A-share banking index has now also turned into a heavily manipulated stock.
The two rectangles and a small circle in the chart are quite interesting. The horizontal rectangle represents the trend from January 2nd to 23rd this year. What was it doing? It was accumulating momentum before the attack, and the overall market was synchronized with the banking index but in the opposite direction. From 2,976 points on January 2nd, it plummeted continuously to 2,724 points on the 23rd.
The vertical rectangle shows the banking index starting to rise, and at this time, the overall market began its second wave of decline, setting a new low of 2,635 points. The small circle in the chart is February 6th, which shows the banking index taking a break halfway. At this time, the increase in the banking index had reached 11%, and the overall market only started a significant rebound at this time. At this time, the calls for a bull market, including various good news, emerged one after another, and retail investors were excited, dreaming of getting rich. Why is that?
The trend of the A-share oil index and the banking index is basically the same, but it is delayed by two to three days in time. However, before February 6th, both had accumulated a large increase and then continued to rise with the overall market.
In the first half of this year, the maximum increase in the oil index was 47%, and the increase in the banking index exceeded 20% in the first half of the year. Currently, both of these major sectors are experiencing price fluctuations without volume, which is consistent with the trend of strong manipulated stocks.
These two sectors are facing a significant correction in both weekly and monthly lines. The current position is basically a historical high point, and the main trend in the medium and long term is a fluctuating decline. If there is a bull market in the future, the banking and oil sectors will not participate, but will only return to their essence, which is to maintain market stability.
Second, the securities sector.This is a segment that evokes both hatred and love. On a smaller scale, it can be seen as a two-faced entity, a deserter in the current market trend, a drag on the market. On a larger scale, it is the weathervane of the A-share market, the securities index, which is the most accurate reflection of the A-share market. It foreshadows the overall trend of the A-share market in the later period.
On Friday, the securities sector, within the heavyweight sectors, was the second to hit a new low after the liquor sector, and wiped out the gains since February 6th. This is not a good sign. The trend of the securities index is a miniature of the A-share market index. The rise of banks, oil and other heavy positions of social security and insurance is just the opposite of the trend of the securities index.
From the above chart, we can see that the narrow frame on the left side is when the rebound started on February 6th, with the lowest point at 1153 points. The square frame on the right is the recent trend of the securities index, which has already hit a new low of 1145 points on Friday, closing at 1149 points.
Fortunately, although the securities index has hit a new low, the daily MACD indicator of the index has not hit a new low. This is a bottom divergence, which also indicates that there will be a relatively strong rebound in the short term, which is worth paying attention to.
However, due to the strict regulation of the securities industry, including the implementation of the new delisting rules, as well as the impact of other rumors such as the withdrawal of funds and salary cuts, after this rebound, the securities index will hit a new low again, probe the bottom, and then build the bottom.
This once again illustrates that the major forces are now making deep adjustments to their positions and stocks, and the overall layout of the A-share market is undergoing changes. Under this premise, it is impossible for the market to rise sharply. Only through fluctuations, or even deep bottom probing, can the layout for the next market be completed.
Where is the direction of this layout? When can the real market start? This topic will be briefly explained in tomorrow's article, so stay tuned!
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