In the past two days, I have made an upward judgment on A-shares, and I'm sorry to say, it was correct. Many friends feel that my views these days are very novel, and they think whether I, as a bear, have turned into a bull and so on. In today's morning article, I would like to make a few points for explanation, for everyone's reference and communication.
First of all, I have to say the truth: There is nothing new in the stock market, it's all a repetition of history.
If you have not experienced the history of A-shares before, do not assert that it will go according to your thinking, because in the history of more than 30 years of A-shares, the only thing that has changed in A-shares is the manipulation techniques of the market makers, no matter what kind of market makers.
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Because the definition of retail investors and their status in the A-share food chain determine the fate of retail investors. I do not accept any refutation on this point, because this is a fact.
May I ask: Can ordinary retail investors participate in stock index futures? Participate in the trading of the Beijing Stock Exchange? Participate in the trading of the Science and Technology Innovation Board? Participate in margin trading? These are all things that retail investors cannot do, but market makers can do. This is a rule that has been set for many years and is still in place.
If you can, then you are not an ordinary retail investor. At least you are a medium or large investor, which means that retail investors cannot play over market makers. All kinds of actions of retail investors are designed by the main force or the market maker. If you want to jump out of this logical chain, you must have your own operational concept and operational techniques, which many people do not have.
At the very least, you can't even control your own emotions. The most basic thing about stock trading is to be calm, and you can't do it. When the market rises a bit, you are so excited that you don't know what to do. When it falls a bit, you curse the heavens, the earth, and the air, plus a curse on the stock review. All of these will affect your own judgment.Secondly, I have not changed my judgment on the overall trend of A-shares over the years. The medium to long term is a process of fluctuating decline because A-shares are expected to enter a long-term bull market in the future. Currently, we are still far from this bull market and are missing a historical bottom.
Firstly, this view was formed in 2021, and my judgment remains that the intermediate rebound trend that started in June 2020 is a large-scale distribution trend. It started with new lithium, photovoltaic, liquor, insurance, automobiles, food and beverages, medicine, and then to the central enterprises, mainly A+H central enterprises.
It continued until the five major banks on May 9 last year, and then to the securities in July last year. Subsequently, A-shares fell, and from the "8.28" bailout last year to several bailouts at the beginning of this year, the market started this rebound on February 3, which was for the large-cap weight stocks and some traditional industry varieties, such as coal, electricity, steel, petroleum, etc., to distribute. This distribution process is actually a relatively large one, which has a profound impact on A-shares.
Secondly, the future of A-shares is to be a long-term bull market. The next bull market of A-shares cannot be launched by these traditional industries, but by new industries, such as artificial intelligence, computing power, and other new technology stocks.
Therefore, as the big brother of A-shares, it also needs to adjust positions and change stocks, but they are too large, and it is difficult to turn the ship, and any carelessness will cause violent fluctuations in A-shares.
This period coincides with the time when the yellow-haired man took office across the strait, and he began to suppress us, raising interest rates until now. During this period, A-shares can stabilize around 3,000 points, which is already the greatest achievement.
In the stock market, the main force of the main position to adjust positions and change stocks is a long process, some even beyond the cognition of our retail investors, so this process is very difficult and painful.
Many people do not understand the word "distribution" and are also annoyed to hear this word, which is your own cognitive problem. In the stock market, it is buying and selling, adjusting positions and changing stocks is distribution, how can you adjust positions and change stocks without distribution? How can you make a big bull market without changing stocks?Thirdly, regarding the short- to medium-term trend of A-shares, I maintain my original judgment. This is not a narrow-minded view of flipping from bearish to bullish or vice versa, but is based on the anticipation of a major bull market in A-shares in the future. The earlier the market finds its bottom, the sooner the bull market will arrive.
Firstly, the A-share index at 2635 points is not the historical bottom of A-shares, but only a policy bottom. According to the laws of the stock market operation, after the policy bottom, the market will still look for the market bottom, which is usually lower than the policy bottom. This has been proven more than 10 times in the 30-year development process of A-shares, and this time is no exception.
Secondly, the current A-share market is building a round top. I was the first to propose this judgment on the Internet at the end of February this year. The current trend is a process of building a round top. However, given the current weak market absorption capacity, the construction time of this round top has been extended, but the space has not been expanded, and it is still within the scope of building a round top.
Thirdly, the second major point has explained very well that the current main capital is promoting its own process of adjusting positions and changing stocks by raising prices, luring more, and selling out. The oscillating market in recent years is a deepening of this process, which is also the way for the stock market to make money. You must not imagine yourself as the main force or the market manipulator. Many people are confused when they hear these three words, which is unnecessary.
Because there are many people who want to make quick money in A-shares, this is a disrespect for money and the stock market. If it is so easy to make money in the stock market, what is the point of other industries? Making money in the stock market is a matter of will, patience, and the sublimation of human nature, not gambling, nor your own imagination. Therefore, I often say in my articles: to respect A-shares, respect money, and respect our opponents - the main force manipulators.
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